Eight decades following the Second World War, surveys indicate that a significant number of Americans and Western Europeans fear a potentially more catastrophic third global conflict could emerge within the next ten years, with escalating tensions with Russia identified as the most likely trigger.
As Europe gets ready to commemorate the 80th anniversary of VE Day, YouGov polling revealed that a significant majority believes that the events of the second world war and its preceding context remain pertinent today and should be taught to younger generations.
A survey conducted across five European countries—Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—revealed that between 41% and 55% of respondents believed that another world war was very or fairly likely to occur within the next five to ten years. This perspective was echoed by 45% of Americans as well.
A significant majority, ranging from 68% to 76%, expressed the belief that any forthcoming conflict would likely involve nuclear weapons. Additionally, between 57% and 73% indicated that a potential third world war would result in a higher loss of life compared to the years 1939-1945. A significant portion, ranging from 25% to 44%, held the belief that it would result in the deaths of most people globally.
A majority of individuals, with figures from 66% in Italy to 89% in the UK, expressed the expectation that their nation would participate in such a conflict. However, only a smaller percentage, ranging from 16% in Italy to 44% in France, believed that their military would be capable of providing adequate defense.
Conversely, 71% of Americans expressed confidence in the US military. A significant majority of western Europeans, between 72% and 82%, and 69% of Americans identified Russia as the most likely trigger for another world war, with Islamic terrorism following closely behind.
A significant number of Europeans shared similar sentiments regarding the US, often viewed as Europe’s ally. In Spain, 58% of respondents, along with 55% in Germany and 53% in France, identified tensions with the US as a major or moderate threat to peace on the continent.
Reflecting on the Second World War, participants from France (72%), Germany (70%), and the UK (66%) were the most inclined to report having a substantial understanding of the conflict, while those in Spain – which was not involved – showed the least familiarity at 40%.
Approximately 77% of individuals in France reported having received a significant or moderate education regarding the war in their schooling, in contrast to 60% of Germans, 48% of Britons, and merely 34% of Spaniards. Younger generations tended to indicate that they received extensive instruction.
A significant majority (82% to 90%) of western Europeans and Americans expressed that it is important for the second world war to be taught in schools, with between 72% and 87% indicating that the events of the conflict and the circumstances leading up to it remain relevant today.
Between 31% (Spain) and 52% (the US) across all six countries expressed the belief that “crimes like those committed by the Nazi regime in Germany in the 1930s and 40s” could potentially occur in their own country during their lifetimes.
A greater number of respondents (44% to 59%) expressed the belief that Nazi-style crimes could occur in “another western European country,” while 44% to 60% also indicated that such a situation might be possible in the US, including 52% of Americans.
When asked about who contributed the most to the defeat of the Nazis, between 40% and 52% of respondents in five surveyed countries identified the US, while 17% to 28% pointed to the Soviet Union. In the UK, 41% of respondents identified Britain, a perspective that was echoed by merely 5% to 11% of Americans and other western Europeans.
Nearly half of Germans (46%) expressed the belief that their country has effectively addressed its wartime actions since 1945, a sentiment shared by 49% of Americans and 58% of Britons. In France, 34% of respondents expressed uncertainty, while in Italy, the figure was 30%.
Nearly half of Germans (47%) expressed the belief that their country has been “overly conscious of its Nazi past,” which they feel has hindered its ability to address more recent issues effectively. Merely 24% believed their leaders had achieved the appropriate balance.
In terms of who has contributed the most to maintaining peace since the conclusion of the war, majorities ranging from 52% to 66% across all six countries identified NATO, while at least a plurality of 44% to 60% acknowledged the United Nations for providing a “great deal” or “fair amount” of support.
Between 45% and 56% of Western Europeans and Americans believed that the EU, which was partly established to maintain peace in Europe, had significantly contributed to the absence of conflict.
