Expecting the result of the clandestine papal conclave is exceedingly difficult, as the cardinals’ stances evolve with each round of voting, and some attempt to manipulate the process to sway the prospects of their preferred – or least preferred – candidates. During the conclave in 2013, there were few who anticipated that Jorge Mario Bergoglio would be chosen as Pope Francis. Currently, attention is directed towards these individuals as potential successors:
Pietro Parolin, aged 70, from Italy
Regarded as a moderate “continuity candidate,” Parolin maintained a close relationship with Francis. Since 2013, he has served as the Vatican’s secretary of state, significantly influencing diplomatic matters, including sensitive negotiations with China and various governments in the Middle East. He is seen as a dependable and esteemed papal envoy by secular diplomats. In 2018, he played a pivotal role in a contentious agreement with the Chinese government regarding the appointment of bishops, which was criticized by some as a capitulation to the communist regime. Parolin’s detractors view him as a modernist and pragmatist, prioritizing ideology and diplomatic solutions over the fundamental truths of the faith. To his supporters, he is a bold visionary and passionate advocate for peace.
Luis Antonio Tagle, aged 67, hails from the Philippines.
Tagle, previously the archbishop of Manila, stands as a candidate to become the first pope from Asia, a region experiencing the most rapid growth in its Catholic population. He was once regarded as Francis’s favored successor and a formidable candidate to carry on the late pope’s progressive agenda, but he seems to have recently lost favor. He has proposed that the Catholic Church’s position on gay and divorced couples is excessively severe, yet he has also opposed abortion rights in the Philippines.
Peter Turkson, aged 76, from Ghana
Turkson would mark the return of a black pope after centuries. He has expressed his views on matters like the climate crisis, poverty, and economic justice, while also upholding the church’s traditional stances on the priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality. Nonetheless, his perspective on the latter has softened, and he has contended that the laws in numerous African nations are excessively severe. He has addressed issues of corruption and human rights.
Péter Erdő, 72 years old, from Hungary
Erdő, a prominent conservative candidate, has consistently championed traditional Catholic teachings and doctrine. He would signify a significant departure from Francis’s approach. He is highly esteemed as a remarkable thinker and a cultured individual. Erdő was favored by the late cardinal George Pell, who held the belief that he would reinstate the rule of law in the Vatican after Francis. In 2015, Erdő seemed to align with Hungary’s nationalist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, by opposing Francis’s appeal for churches to welcome migrants.
Matteo Zuppi, aged 69, hails from Italy.
In 2019, Zuppi was appointed a cardinal by Francis and is viewed as part of the progressive wing of the church. He is anticipated to carry on Francis’s legacy, reflecting the late pope’s commitment to the poor and marginalized. He holds a relatively liberal stance on same-sex relationships. Two years prior, Francis appointed him as the Vatican peace envoy for Ukraine, a role in which he traveled to Moscow to “encourage gestures of humanity.” During his time there, he encountered Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church and a close ally of Vladimir Putin. He has also had an audience with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine.
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, from Portugal
Tolentino stands as one of the youngest possible successors to Francis, a factor that may work against him—ambitious cardinals might be reluctant to wait another 20 or 30 years for another opportunity at the highest position. He has drawn criticism for expressing support for accepting perspectives on same-sex relationships and for aligning himself with a feminist Benedictine sister who advocates for women’s ordination and is pro-choice. He shared similar views with Francis on many matters and contends that the church should interact with contemporary culture.
Mario Grech, aged 68, from Malta
Grech, initially regarded as a traditionalist, started to adopt more progressive views following Francis’s election in 2013. His supporters contend that his evolving views demonstrate his ability to grow and adapt. He has voiced criticism of European political leaders aiming to restrict the operations of NGO ships and has shown support for female deacons.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, aged 60, from Italy
Since 2020, Pizzaballa has served as the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, playing an essential role in supporting the Christian minority in the Holy Land. Following Hamas’s assault on Israel on 7 October 2023, Pizzaballa volunteered to become a hostage in return for the release of children being held by Hamas in Gaza. He traveled to Gaza in May 2024 following several months of negotiations. He is anticipated to carry on certain elements of Francis’s leadership within the church, yet has remained largely silent on contentious matters.
Robert Sarah, aged 79, from Guinea
Sarah is an Orthodox cardinal who once aimed to position himself as a “parallel authority” to Francis, as noted by a Vatican observer. In 2020, he collaborated on a book with the retired Pope Benedict that defended clerical celibacy, which was perceived as a challenge to Francis’s authority. He has criticized “gender ideology” as a danger to society and has expressed opposition to Islamic fundamentalism. Similar to Turkson, he has the potential to become the first black pope in centuries.
